How to Calculate Football Arbitrage Bets

Unquestionably, football is one of the most dynamic sports available out there, and it enjoys a staggering viewership by people from an impressive number of countries. What arrests the attention of gambling enthusiasts is that football, or soccer as the sport is also referred to, is one of the fastest-paced sports, and it is full of stunning turns.

The reasons why football remains one of the most favored sports by bettors do not come to an end due to the fact that it is in the foreground also because it allows punters to select from multifarious bet types. It is fair to say that arbitrage betting can easily be described as one of the most talked about manners of soccer betting due to the fact that it allows punters to enhance their chances to win substantially. This is made possible as with arbitrage betting, gambling aficionados are making stakes on every single outcome of a football matchup, thus guaranteeing that they will get a profit.

Football Arbitrage Betting Explained

You might be interested to find out that arbitrage is a term which is used in economics and finances, and it describes the concurrent purchase and sale of something. The aim of this is to benefit from the disbalance which might be observed in the prices of the commodity or the service.

In essence, arbitrage betting has existed for quite some time, but it caused a stir when some of the most recent technological improvements were brought about on the online gambling scene. Despite the fact that an impressive number of football lovers decide in favor of this betting technique, there are many bookies which frown upon it and do not allow their patrons to make use of it.

Gambling enthusiasts who have never made use of this betting technique need to know that thanks to it, they will be capable of availing themselves in the dissimilarity in the value of the odds which are offered by the different virtual sportsbooks. Thus, soccer devotees will enjoy gains, no matter how the matchup will end up. Interestingly enough, this manner of football betting is also popular with punters as matched betting or sure wins. No matter which of the terms you will use, you need to know that on all accounts, you will be required to make stakes on each of the feasible outcomes of a matchup, which in other words means that in any event, you will get a payout.

As long as you are interested in arbitrage betting, what you need to do is to track down web-based bookies which will give you the chance to make stakes on one and the same sporting event. What you need to pay special attention to is whether the value of the odds differs greatly. Thus, gambling aficionados will have the chance to punt not only on football but also on other sporting events which have two possible outcomes. Still, gamblers should bear in mind that because of the reliance on the fluctuation of odds, arbitrage bets might be at their disposal only for a couple of ticks. Hence, soccer lovers should always be on the alert to find such discrepancies in the value of the odds, so that they could make use of them in a flash.

Football lovers might be interested to find out that this betting technique has proved to become a great tool for generating profit. Still, punters need to know that with arbitrage betting, there is more than meets the eye as they should be patient and at the same time, they should make larger stakes in order to have the chance to enjoy a substantially bigger profit.

How to Calculate Football Arbitrage Bets

There is no doubt that the best way to grasp the manner in which arbitrage betting works is to study the examples we will provide. Still, football lovers should take into account the fact that there are two manners of making and calculating arbitrage bets. One of the options punters have is to make such bets between two virtual sportsbooks, whereas the other option they have is to calculate their arbitrage bets between a bookmaker and exchange.

Football Arbitrage Bets Between Two Bookmakers

Let’s presume that there is a matchup between Barcelona and Real Madrid, and you have managed to track down two interactive bookies which offer odds on this particular event. Let’s assume that the first bookie you have signed up for an account offers odds of 1.30 for Barcelona to win and 3.70 for Real Madrid to win. The second bookie on its part offers odds of 1.40 for Barcelona to win and 2.90 for Real Madrid to win.

Thus, what you need to do is to place a stake on Real Madrid at the first virtual sportsbook, and to make another stake on Barcelona with the second bookie, which in other words means that you need to crossmatch the prices you are offered on this specific sporting event. It is important to note that as long as you wish to make use of arbitrage betting, you should make sure that the wagers you will make will be proportional to the value of the odds. One of the most important things gamblers should do is to estimate the implied probability. In order to do so, they simply need to divide 1 by the value of the odds, and then to multiply the result by 100. Thus, in order to get the implied probability of Real Madrid’s odds, we need to divide 1 by 3.70, meaning that it stands at 27.02%. When it comes to Barcelona, however, we will get that the implied probability is 71.42%. Now, you simply need to put together the values you have got so that you could figure out whether you have managed to spot an arbitrage betting market, and whether you should make such a stake.

Thus, as long as the value you will get in total does not exceed 100%, this means that the options you are offered are worth your while. If we return to the example we already gave, it should hit you that making a stake in this case is beneficial due to the fact that the implied probability of this market stands at 98.44%.

Now, let’s assume that you have decided to wager as much as $100. In order to estimate the size of your arbitrage bet with each of the bookmakers, you need to multiply your overall stake by the implied probability of each of the bookies. Then, you need to divide the value you have got by the value of the combined market margin. In other words, the formula you need to follow looks like this: (the amount which is intended for soccer betting x the implied probability of the bookie) / total market margin. Thus, if we return to the example we gave, when making your stake on Real Madrid, you need to wager as much as $27.44. When it comes to betting on Barcelona, gambling enthusiasts need to wager as much as $72.55.

Football Arbitrage Bets Between a Bookmaker and Exchange

The other alternative football lovers are presented with is to estimate their arbitrage bets between a bookmaker and exchange. Once again, soccer fans are given the chance to gamble on a specific event, but the most obvious difference is that they are allowed to buy or to back the outcome, or just the opposite, to sell, or to lay it in an attempt to enhance their profit or to minimize the losses they might potentially experience.

Let’s presume that this time, you have decided to make a stake on a matchup between Manchester City and Liverpool. The odds of Manchester City to become victorious are 2.20, whereas the odds of Liverpool are 1.90. Once again, we need to calculate the implied probability which in the first case is 45.45%, whereas, in the second, it stands at 52.63%. Thus, when we put together these values, we will get that the total market margin stands at 98%.

Now, let’s take a look at the odds of Manchester City. Let’s suppose that the lay price of the team to win is 2.20. With the exchange, betting that Manchester City will eventually lose is 1.86. Thus, we will get that the market margin is 99.21%, meaning that this is a great opportunity to make an arbitrage bet.

The formula you need to make use of looks like this: (lay price x back wager) / (value of the current lay odds – exchange commission). Thus, as long as we assume that you have decided to stake as much as $100, and the exchange commission is 0.02, your lay stake would stand at $118, 25.

Why Do Such Opportunities Appear

As it was already stated, arbitrage betting is a manner of football betting thanks to which you enhance your chances to make a profit when wagering on one and the same betting market. Thus, the matchup between Manchester City and Liverpool would be a prime example of arbitrage betting due to the fact that soccer bettors will have the chance to make stakes on each of the teams and eventually, to enjoy a nice profit.

Despite the fact that such opportunities are quite alluring, they are thin on the ground, meaning that for punters, it might be difficult to sniff them out. Still, the main reason why the discrepancies between the value of the prices might occur stems from the fact that bookies set them in a different manner. Although more often than not, the value of the odds on one and the same football matchup does not differ greatly, in some cases they might be uniform, especially when it comes to markets the likes of totals and point spreads. The reason why this occurs is that while setting the value of the odds, compilers need to take account of a broad variety of factors.

Thus, while compilers are making up their mind about the odds, they will try to surmise how the matchup is most likely to progress. Specifically, they will attempt to figure out what the possible outcomes might be so that they could adjust the odds properly. That is the reason why as long as you compare the odds of several interactive bookies on one and the same event, it will hit you that the prices do not range that greatly.

Still, once in a while, the view of compilers might be dissimilar, which therefore means that there will be an inconsistency in the value of the prices as well. This is exactly the situation in which football bettors will have the chance to make an arbitrage bet.

Soccer lovers should also take into account the fact that operators endeavor to make balanced books, which in other words means that they go out of their way in order to make sure that the payouts they will grant will not vary greatly, irrespective of the outcome. Thus, in the event that there are too many stakes on one of the possible outcomes, the bookie will counterbalance it simply by decreasing the value of the odds of this particular outcome and increasing the odds of the other.

As you can see, it might be hard to puzzle out why football lovers will have the chance to make an arbitrage bet. Still, as long as you have ended up slightly bewildered after you have gone through this information, you should not fall into despair. In essence, the most essential thing you need to learn is how to identify arbs, rather than to be able to explain why they occur.

Downsides of Arbitrage Betting

Perhaps, once you have fathomed the manner in which arbitrage betting works, you might be itching to give this technique a go. There is no doubt that one of the main reasons why football bettors are attracted by this manner of gambling is that it promises to bring them a profit, and the risks are minimized.

There is no doubt that this is an unequivocal possibility which gives punters the chance to earn some serious cash, provided that they are devoted. Still, football lovers should bear in mind that arbitrage betting is not faultless by any means.

It is fair to say that one of the biggest downsides of arbitrage bets is that such opportunities might be quite hard to track down. We should definitely highlight this due to the fact that we do not wish to leave you under the impression that such opportunities are aplenty. In essence, it is just the opposite which is why you should make sure that you are keeping an eye out for them so that you could seize them. That is the reason why it might turn out to be harder to make profit consistently as long as you stick to this manner of football betting.

The next drawback has to do with profit margins. In the event that you are a recreational punter, and your goal is not to make a substantial profit, this might not turn out to be an issue, but as long as you wish to earn some serious cash, you should definitely pay more attention to this. One of the most essential things football lovers should remember is that they stand a good chance to enjoy bigger returns, provided that the bankroll they have is more sizeable.

When it comes to the disadvantages which are associated with arbitrage betting, we should also mention the fact that the majority of the bookies take a dim view of it. That is the reason why you might end up with a limited account as long as they notice what you are doing.

Conclusion

To sum up, we will say that arbitrage betting is definitely worthwhile, but gamblers should make sure that their expectations are not unrealistic. That is why punters should bear in mind that such opportunities might not be plentiful, and also that they should not expect some staggering rewards.

That is the reason why as long as you are chasing a long-term profit, it would be much better if you do not utilize arbitrage betting as a single approach to wagering on football. In such cases, you should contemplate going for other manners of soccer betting which promise to deliver bigger profit over the long run.