Boxing Match Winner Bet
| Updated: September 12, 2024
In the introductory section of our guide to online boxing betting, we described very briefly the different bet types available in connection with boxing fights. We will now pay special attention to the Match Winner (Outright Winner) bet with its key aspects accompanied by some useful boxing betting tips.
The only question bettors need to answer in order to try this betting market is who will win the match. That is all, no additional and harder-to-predict options like a method of victory, exact round, or presence of point deduction. Since a draw result is rarely occurring but still possible, some online bookmakers have included it in the selection of boxing bet types they provide.
Using Odds to Determine Winning Chances
When you bet on boxing matches, what you need to look for is where you will get “value” or in other words, where you think you will have a better chance of placing the right bet. Personal opinion and judgment are an integral part of online sports betting, however, being able to make a qualitative analysis is also of utmost importance.
Before publishing any betting odds, online bookmakers make their own research. By looking at the odds of a certain fight you get an idea of what information the bookie has gathered. Keep in mind betting odds are based on a dollar stake. So, what do odds of – 500 say about the fighter’s chances to finish the match as a winner? This number shows that he has 5 out of 6 chances which corresponds to 83%. This looks like an almost guaranteed victory. Do not rush to place your bet. Go through the steps we discuss below and wager only if you come to the same conclusion as the bookmaker.
Aspects of a Successful Match Winner Bet
One word – research. There are many important factors to consider before wagering even on this seemingly simple type of bet. Getting as much information as possible about the fighters involved is the best way to get into the game. In this regard, do not underestimate social networks and always keep an eye on them. Sometimes boxers update the information on their social media profiles before journalists or analysts can get and publish it. Even a picture of a bandaged knee or a bruised cheekbone can be useful enough for you to outsmart bookmakers.
Any particulars may have a contribution to the fight outcome but will focus on three key factors – the boxers’ achievements so far, their fighting style, and experience & talent.
Achievements
Getting acquainted with the achievements of boxers greatly helps to determine whо of them has a better chance of winning each fight. Don’t look at a fighter’s record just as a compilation of numbers to put somewhere and calculate his success rate. It will be advantageous for you to note both the victories and losses in general and also against whom the fighter has realized those victories and losses, respectively. Ten wins against low-ranked boxers are not the same as two but against top fighters. Not once nor twice, have we witnessed how someone comes to a battle for the world title, only to suffer a crushing loss from the reigning champion.
Pay special attention to the last matches of the fighter as his current shape is essential when estimating the probability of him becoming a winner or not. The best source of information are trustworthy rankings showing the boxer’s present position and also if he is considered a good pound-for-pound fighter.
Fighting Style
Just because a boxer is a favorite doesn’t necessarily mean he is the better fighter. There are many cases in which the more talented fighter has not won. It’s just that in these matches the winner had the right thing to disarm his opponent, as long as the conditions were right. For example, he can move perfectly on the ring, have an excellent view of the game, and his rear hand punches usually fall exactly on target. However, if the boxer has the so-called “suspect chin”, or “glass jaw” and his contender manages to get over his defense and make even one hit in the right place, the progress of the match can be reversed very quickly.
So, the fighters’ style of boxing is quite important and should affect your boxing predictions at least to some extent. In our humble opinion, it is not enough to read what others say about it. It is much more useful to watch as many matches as possible and get a sense of how the fighter behaves in the ring and how his style matches the ones of other boxers.
We can hardly list all the styles, and this is not the purpose of this article. In general, fighters divide into swarmers, out-boxers, sluggers, and boxer-punchers. Swarmers are the nightmare of weak-chin fighters as they have a great punch output and try to defeat their rivals by applying persistent pressure. Mike Tyson was a typical example of a swarmer.
Swarmers find their antipode in the face of out-boxers who always attempt to maintain a gap between them and their opponent. The hallmark of this fighting style are fast and long-range punches. Most often, out-boxers win by points or judges’ decision rather than knockout. Sluggers are the tanks in the boxing ring, they have no hint of elegance and mobility, but only brutal force and a good level of defensive technique. Their main drawback is they are sometimes open for counterpunches since they usually practice predictable punching patterns.
The hardest to predict are boxer-punchers as they combine different elements of the other three fighting styles. They can boast of high hand speed, good jab combinations, and significant slugger-type power while lacking good mobility. You should always be vigilant with them because it is not known which trump card they will take out of their sleeve (if their opponent allows them to).
| Fighting Styles In Boxing | ||
|---|---|---|
| Style | Strengths | Weaknesses |
| Swarmer | – good chin – powerful punches – fast footwork | – short reach |
| Out-Boxer | – long reaching punches – quick moving – long-lasting stamina | lack of enough power |
| Slugger | – tremendous power – good defensive technique – can withstand a large number of blows | low level of mobility |
| Boxer-Puncher | – fast punch combinations – powerful jabs – adaptable to the opponent’s style | neglect defense |
Previous Experience and Talent
We do not undertake to determine whether the ratio between talent and experience of a successful fighter is the same as the one musicians often bring to the fore (1% talent, 99% work), but it is surely not far from that.
In order to have an accurate idea of the overall talent and ability level of a fighter, it is necessary both to watch him in the ring and to get acquainted with his history as a boxer. Fighters with little or no experience in amateur boxing are almost certain to have difficulty coping with the level of skills they encounter when facing a former amateur with high achievements such as winning a gold medal at European championships, World championships, or Olympic Games.