Champions League Midpoint: Overachievers, underperformers and key trends under the new format

Written by Paul Kemp

Paul Kemp

Paul Kemp is an experienced sports writer covering Soccer, NBA and NHL. He also writes in depth reviews of sports betting sites based on his personal experience.

, | Updated: November 26, 2024

The Champions League returns this week with the games of matchday 5, marking the midpoint of its inaugural season under the new format. The traditional group stage has been replaced by a single 36-team league table, bringing fresh excitement and higher stakes to Europe’s most prestigious tournament. With four games played and four more to go, it is the perfect time to evaluate which teams have exceeded expectations and which have fallen short. The stakes are immense, as only the top eight teams will earn direct qualification to the last-16 stage. Meanwhile, teams finishing between 9th and 24th will battle it out in play-offs for the remaining knockout spots. In this Sportingpedia analysis we dive into the financial dynamics of the Champions Leauge, comparing each club’s market value rank to their current standings. From unexpected overachievers like Brest, Dinamo Zagreb and Celtic to surprising underperformers such as RB Leipzig, PSG, Bayern Munich and the reigning champions Real Madrid, the findings shed light on the evolving landscape of the Champions League.

Key Takeaways:

• Brest stands out as the biggest overachiever in this season’s Champions League, climbing 26 positions from their 30th market value rank to 4th in the standings
• Dinamo Zagreb (+17), Monaco (+15), Sporting Lisbon (+15), Celtic (+14), and Lille (+10) have also made substantial jumps, significantly outperforming their market value rankings
• RB Leipzig (-19), PSG (-18), Real Madrid (-17), Bayern Munich (-12), Arsenal (-9), and Atletico Madrid (-9) are the biggest underachievers, with the most significant drops compared to their market value projections
• Juventus (11th) and Slovan Bratislava (36th) are the only teams whose actual league positions match their market value rankings
• The Croatian First League (+17) and the Scottish Premiership (+14) lead the gains among represented leagues, though each has just one club in the tournament
• Ligue 1 (+8.25) and Liga Portugal (+8) show the highest average gains among leagues with multiple clubs represented in the tournament
• On average, La Liga teams have fallen the most in standings (-8) when compared to their market value

Leagues Comparison

Croatia’s First League emerges as the top overperformer, with its sole representative, Dinamo Zagreb, achieving a remarkable 17 positions above its market value rank. Scotland’s Premiership follows closely with 14 positions gained, achieved only by Celtic. France’s Ligue 1 leads the way in collective gains, earning a total of +33 positions across four clubs, averaging +8.25 per team. Portugal’s Liga Portugal and Belgium’s Pro League also performed well, with +16 and +6 positions gained, respectively, from their representatives.

At the other end, Spain’s La Liga (-32) and Germany’s Bundesliga (-33) suffer the most significant declines, each represented by four and five clubs, respectively. Spain’s La Liga has the steepest average drop at -6.6 positions per club. England’s Premier League, despite fielding four teams, collectively dropped -10 positions, averaging -2.5 per club.

Overachievers

Brest (30th in market value, 4th in standings, +26 positions)

Brest has emerged as the most significant overachiever in this season’s Champions League, outperforming their modest market value of €120.9M. Their campaign began with a 2-1 home victory over Sturm Graz (€68.9M) and an emphatic 4-0 away win against Salzburg (€202.4M), a team valued nearly twice as high. They held Bayer Leverkusen (€634.25M), ranked 13th by market value, to a 1-1 draw at home. Brest then secured a critical 2-1 away victory against Sparta Prague (€85.4M), further solidifying their impressive run. Despite facing higher-valued squads, Brest has consistently delivered efficient and tactical performances, climbing to 4th place in the standings. Their ability to claim points against stronger financial opponents, including dominating teams with significantly higher budgets, underscores their strategic discipline and determination in a competitive group.

Dinamo Zagreb (33rd in market value, 16th in standings, +17 positions)

Dinamo Zagreb has defied expectations, climbing 17 places above their market value rank of 33rd (€73.15M). After an initial 9-2 loss to Bayern Munich (€939.7M), one of the most expensive squads, Zagreb rebounded impressively. They earned a 2-2 draw against Monaco (€358.2M), a side nearly five times their valuation. The Croatian club followed this with a vital 2-0 away win against Salzburg (€202.4M) and a commanding 4-1 victory over Slovan (€28.78M). Their ability to recover from an early setback and secure crucial points highlights their resilience and adaptability. With standout results against significantly wealthier teams, Dinamo has showcased their ability to compete effectively on a limited budget, cementing their place as one of the tournament’s surprise packages.

Monaco (18th in market value, 3rd in standings, +15 positions)

Monaco, valued at €358.2M, has lived up to their potential as one of the top performers this season. Their campaign began with a 2-1 win against Barcelona (€946M), a powerhouse nearly three times their valuation. Monaco maintained momentum with a 2-2 draw against Dinamo Zagreb (€73.15M) and a dominant 5-1 victory over Red Star (€78.55M). Despite their strong run, a narrow 0-1 loss to Bologna (€276.8M) marked their only blemish. Monaco’s climb to 3rd in the standings reflects their ability to outperform higher-ranked teams while taking advantage of favorable matchups. Their well-rounded performances against teams across various market tiers solidify their place as a formidable contender.

Sporting Lisbon (17th in market value, 2nd in standings, +15 positions)

Sporting Lisbon, with a market value of €443.5M, has exceeded expectations, claiming notable victories against stronger opposition. They opened with a 2-0 win over Lille (€263.7M) and followed with a 1-1 draw against PSV (€338.35M). Sporting then secured a 2-0 away win against Sturm Graz (€68.9M) and an impressive 4-1 victory over Manchester City (€1260M), the highest-valued team in the competition. Sporting’s ability to consistently earn points against both higher and lower-valued teams demonstrates their tactical acumen. Their rise to 2nd in the standings highlights their balanced performances and adaptability in challenging situations.

Celtic (29th in market value, 15th in standings, +14 positions)

Celtic’s campaign has seen them outperform their market value of €124.43M, climbing 14 places in the standings. Their journey began with a dominant 5-1 victory over Slovan (€28.78M), followed by a 7-1 loss to Borussia Dortmund (€474.9M). However, Celtic bounced back with a 0-0 draw against Atalanta (€447.6M) and a 3-1 victory over RB Leipzig (€517.9M). Despite financial limitations, Celtic has demonstrated resilience and effectiveness against stronger opposition. Their ability to secure results against higher-valued teams reflects their disciplined approach and tactical versatility, solidifying their status as one of the tournament’s overachievers.

Lille (24th in market value, 14th in standings, +10 positions)

Lille, ranked 24th in market value at €263.7M, has delivered several notable performances this season. Their journey began with a 2-0 loss to Sporting Lisbon (€443.5M), but they rebounded with a crucial 1-0 win over Real Madrid (€1360M), the most valuable team in the tournament. Lille continued their impressive run with a 3-1 away victory against Atletico Madrid (€511.15M) and a 1-1 draw with Juventus (€594.2M). Their ability to challenge and defeat some of the highest-valued teams underscores their efficient and well-organized approach. Lille’s climb to 14th place in the standings reflects their consistency and determination to compete at the highest level.

UNDERACHIEVERS

RB Leipzig (13th in market value, 32nd in standings, -19 positions)

RB Leipzig’s campaign has been marked by repeated setbacks, making them the biggest underachiever in the Champions League. Despite boasting a squad valued at €517.9M, Leipzig has lost all four of their group stage matches. Their struggles began with a narrow 2-1 defeat to Atletico Madrid (€511.15M), followed by a disappointing 2-3 home loss to Juventus (€594.2M). Liverpool (€931M) also dealt Leipzig a 0-1 home defeat, and their 3-1 loss to Celtic (€124.43M) further highlighted their inability to capitalize on their financial advantage.

PSG (7th in market value, 25th in standings, -18 positions)

PSG, valued at €892.5M, has struggled to match expectations despite their significant resources. After starting with a 1-0 home win against Girona (€216.5M), they suffered a 2-0 loss away to Arsenal (€1.17B), followed by a disappointing 1-1 home draw with PSV (€338.35M). The most notable setback came in a 1-2 home defeat to Atletico Madrid (€511.15M), where they failed to capitalize on their higher market value.

Real Madrid (1st in market value, 18th in standings, -17 positions)

Real Madrid’s underperformance is surprising given their squad’s valuation of €1.36B, the highest of all participants in the tournament. Although the defending champions managed a 3-1 home win against Stuttgart (€313.73M) and a dominant 5-2 home victory over Borussia Dortmund (€474.9M), their losses have overshadowed these results. A 1-0 away loss to Lille (€263.7M) and a 1-3 home defeat to Milan (€562M) exposed vulnerabilities. Despite moments of brilliance, Madrid’s inconsistency has been evident.

Bayern Munich (5th in market value, 17th in standings, -12 positions)

Bayern Munich’s Champions League journey has been a mix of dominance and struggles. The Bavarians opened with a resounding 9-2 home win over Dinamo Zagreb (€73.15M), yet their form dipped with a 1-0 loss away to Aston Villa (€615.45M) and a crushing 4-1 defeat to Barcelona (€946M). Despite a narrow 1-0 home win against Benfica (€335.5M), Bayern has failed to consistently deliver results reflective of their €939.7M valuation.

Arsenal (3rd in market value, 12th in standings, -9 positions)

Arsenal, valued at €1.17B, has fallen short of expectations despite flashes of quality. Their 2-0 home win against PSG (€892.5M) highlighted their potential, but their performances have been inconsistent. A narrow 1-0 away loss to Benfica (€335.5M) and struggles in other group matches have left the Gunners unable to fully justify their financial standing.

Atletico Madrid (14th in market value, 23rd in standings, -9 positions)

Atletico Madrid has shown flashes of brilliance but has largely underperformed relative to their €511.15M market value. Their campaign started with a solid 2-1 home win against RB Leipzig (€517.9M), but heavy defeats, such as a 4-0 away loss to Benfica (€335.5M) and a 1-3 home defeat to Lille (€263.7M), have set them back. A 1-2 away victory against PSG (€892.5M) showed their potential but hasn’t been enough to improve their standing.

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