Playoffs vs. Regular Season: Scoring shifts of every NBA MVP

Written by Paul Kemp

Paul Kemp

Paul Kemp is an experienced sports writer covering Soccer, NBA and NHL. He also writes in depth reviews of sports betting sites based on his personal experience.

, | Updated: April 16, 2025

The GOAT debate in the NBA never ends. The 2024–2025 regular season has concluded, and the league is now moving through the play-in tournament ahead of the April 19 playoff tip-off. Once again, conversations about whether LeBron James has matched – or even surpassed – Michael Jordan’s legacy are dominating sports media and fan circles. Others debate whether Nikola Jokic or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should be voted as this season’s MVP. But rather than relying on opinions, narratives, or highlight reels, we took a data-driven approach: by comparing every NBA regular season MVP and how their scoring changed when it mattered most — the playoffs.

This week Sportingpedia looks at how points per game (PPG) varied for all 36 players who have won the MVP award. We investigated two key metrics: each player’s regular season and playoff scoring average during their MVP season, and their career-long PPG in both categories. The aim? To find out who truly rose to the occasion and who faded when the pressure peaked — and ultimately, to identify the most dominant and consistent postseason scorer among the league’s most decorated players.

Some MVPs elevated their game under the spotlight. Others failed to match their regular season brilliance once the playoffs began. The numbers reveal remarkable contrasts. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar recorded the largest single-season jump in playoff scoring, increasing his average by +8.4 PPG in 1977. He is matched by Steve Nash, who posted an identical +8.4 PPG surge in 2005. Looking at full careers, Nikola Jokić leads all MVPs with a +5.9 PPG playoff boost, followed by Dirk Nowitzki at +4.6 PPG.

Key Takeaways:

• Nikola Jokić has the largest career playoff scoring increase among all MVPs, raising his average by +5.9 PPG from the regular season (21.8) to the playoffs (27.7)
• LeBron James maintained an elite scoring level across both stages, averaging 27.0 PPG in the regular season and 28.4 PPG in the playoffs over his career, showing remarkable consistency with a +1.4 increase
• Michael Jordan is one of the few MVPs to increase his scoring significantly in both MVP seasons and across his entire career, averaging 33.4 PPG in the playoffs compared to 30.1 in the regular season — a +3.3 PPG boost
• Stephen Curry’s scoring dropped by -5.0 PPG in his 2016 MVP season, coinciding with Golden State’s 3–1 collapse in the Finals — but over his career, he still posts a +2.3 PPG playoff increase, rising from 24.7 to 27.0
• Magic Johnson is one of the few MVPs with no change at all between regular season and playoff scoring averages — 19.5 PPG in both, reflecting a unique level of scoring stability
• Larry Bird is among the MVPs who saw a scoring dip in both his MVP seasons and career averages, with a -0.5 PPG playoff drop across his career (from 24.3 to 23.8), despite leading Boston to multiple championships
• Wilt Chamberlain holds the largest playoff scoring drop of any MVP, with his average falling by -7.6 PPG, from 30.1 in the regular season to 22.5 in the playoffs across his career
• Joel Embiid posted the steepest playoff collapse in an MVP season, dropping by -9.4 PPG in 2023 — from 33.1 to 23.7, a sharp contrast for the league’s top regular season scorer
• Kareem Abdul-Jabbar made the largest single-season scoring leap, increasing by +8.4 PPG in the 1977 playoffs (26.2 to 34.6), even though the Lakers didn’t reach the Finals
• Steve Nash matched Kareem’s postseason surge in 2005, also jumping by +8.4 PPG from 15.5 to 23.9, the highest playoff rise ever by a guard in an MVP season
• Oscar Robertson saw a major career playoff decline of -3.5 PPG, dropping from 25.7 to 22.2, despite his reputation as one of the game’s most complete offensive players
• Dirk Nowitzki ranks second in career scoring increase among MVPs, with a +4.6 PPG boost, jumping from 20.7 to 25.3 in the postseason, showing his clutch scoring on deep playoff runs

The largest postseason scoring leap by any MVP came from Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1977. Despite the Lakers falling short of the Finals, Abdul-Jabbar increased his scoring from 26.2 PPG in the regular season to 34.6 in the playoffs, a staggering +8.4 difference. Steve Nash matched that exact figure in 2005, jumping from 15.5 to 23.9 PPG in the postseason. Kareem appeared again in 1980 with a +7.1 boost—this time pairing it with a title. LeBron James delivered a +6.9 jump in 2009, raising his average from 28.4 to 35.3 PPG, though it wasn’t enough for a ring. Russell Westbrook in 2017 also produced a substantial lift, going from 31.6 to 37.4 for a +5.8 surge in a year where his Thunder fell early.

Kareem also improved his output in 1974 by +5.2 PPG, while Wes Unseld in 1969 and Stephen Curry in 2015 both registered playoff boosts of +5 and +4.5 respectively—the latter contributing to Golden State’s championship run. Michael Jordan’s 1992 MVP season included a 4.4-point increase, another title-winning effort. Nikola Jokic added +3.9 in 2022 but didn’t reach the Finals that year. Bill Russell had three separate seasons—1961, 1962, and 1963—where he increased his scoring between +2.2 and +3.5 PPG, all ending in Celtics championships. Jordan posted another postseason surge in 1998 (+3.7), once again lifting the trophy. Among the most successful MVPs, it’s often those whose playoff numbers increased who ultimately won it all.

Not all scoring rises led to titles, however. Jokic in 2021 (+3.4), Magic Johnson in 1990 (+2.9), and Bob McAdoo in 1975 (+2.9) all saw meaningful jumps without lifting the trophy. Tim Duncan, meanwhile, paired modest increases with deep runs, including a +2.1 in his 2002 title season. Willis Reed in 1970 added +2 and earned Finals MVP. Players like Allen Iverson (+1.8 in 2001), Kobe Bryant (+1.8 in 2008), and Hakeem Olajuwon (+1.6 in his 1994 title campaign) also saw playoff gains. Moses Malone’s title-winning 1983 run included a +1.5 lift, while David Cowens (+1.4 in 1973) and Michael Jordan in 1988 (+1.3) produced increases that didn’t lead to a ring.

Among the most consistent were Shaquille O’Neal in 2000 (+1.0) and Charles Barkley in 1993 (+1.0), with only Shaq winning that season. Others hovered around neutrality, such as Kevin Garnett and Larry Bird in 2004 and 1986 respectively (+0.1 each), and Jordan in 1996 with a +0.3 during yet another Bulls title run.

At the other end of the spectrum are MVPs whose playoff scoring dipped sharply. Joel Embiid recorded the steepest decline, dropping from 33.1 PPG in the 2023 regular season to just 23.7 in the playoffs—a -9.4 fall. Moses Malone in 1982 dropped by 7.1, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1972 fell by 6.1 despite still making a Finals appearance. Wilt Chamberlain appears four times among the biggest declines, including -5.5 in 1966 and -4.4 in 1960. Stephen Curry’s 2016 season saw a -5 point drop from 30.1 to 25.1 PPG, coinciding with Golden State’s blown 3–1 lead in the Finals. Bill Walton fell from 18.9 to 13.5 in 1978, while Dirk Nowitzki’s 2007 MVP year included a -4.9 collapse during a stunning first-round exit.

Other notable declines include Giannis Antetokounmpo in both 2019 and 2020 (-2.2 and -2.8), Karl Malone in 1997 and 1999, Magic Johnson in 1989 (-4.1), and David Robinson in 1995 (-2.3). Some MVPs dropped modestly and still won it all — Magic Johnson in 1987 (-2.1), Wilt in 1967 (-2.4), and Larry Bird in 1985 (-2.7), showing that playoff success sometimes hinges on team depth or playing style rather than individual scoring increases.

The most unusual entry in the dataset is Abdul-Jabbar’s 1976 season, where he averaged 27.7 PPG but did not appear in the playoffs — still the only MVP to miss the postseason entirely.

Out of all the seasons analysed, just 17 MVPs went on to win the championship that same year. Among them are Jordan (1992, 1998), Curry (2015), Jokic (2023), Bird (1984), LeBron (2012), Duncan (2002), Olajuwon (1994), Moses Malone (1983), Reed (1970), Cowens (1973), and Bill Russell across multiple seasons. The full range of outcomes shows that a scoring surge can be a sign of greatness, but not a guarantee of postseason glory.

While single-season bursts can define a championship run, the greatest players often show their true value over time. To complement the MVP-year analysis, this report also examines how each MVP performed across their entire career, comparing regular season PPG to playoff PPG. The contrast reveals which legends consistently rose in the postseason — and which never quite matched their regular season output when the stakes were highest.

No one exemplifies sustained playoff elevation more than Nikola Jokić, whose career scoring average jumps from 21.8 in the regular season to 27.7 in the playoffs — a +5.9 PPG leap. Jokić is followed by another European – Dirk Nowitzki (+4.6) and Derrick Rose (+4.5), despite Rose’s limited playoff opportunities due to injuries. Hakeem Olajuwon (+4.1) and Michael Jordan (+3.3) also made their marks, with Jordan famously lifting six titles while increasing his average from 30.1 to 33.4 in the playoffs — a rare feat at such elite volume.

Other consistent risers include Allen Iverson and Steve Nash (both +3.0), Giannis Antetokounmpo (+2.7), and Russell Westbrook (+2.4) — all showing their ability to maintain or even exceed peak scoring under playoff pressure. Stephen Curry (+2.3) and Kevin Durant (+2.1) also reinforced their reputations as postseason performers with modest but meaningful increases.

Notably, LeBron James — despite his extraordinary consistency — shows only a +1.4 career lift (27.0 to 28.4), illustrating how close his regular and playoff outputs have been throughout his two-decade run. Legends like Tim Duncan (+1.6), Moses Malone (+1.5), and Shaquille O’Neal (+0.6) also showed small but positive playoff shifts, often supported by strong team dynamics and defensive presence.

Several MVPs stayed flat or dipped slightly. Magic Johnson’s average held steady at 19.5 PPG in both environments, while Julius Erving (-0.1), Wes Unseld (-0.2), and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (-0.3) saw minimal change. Larry Bird (-0.5) and Karl Malone (-0.3) also registered slight drops.

But the steepest declines reveal a different narrative. Wilt Chamberlain’s career playoff average drops dramatically — from 30.1 in the regular season to just 22.5 in the postseason — a -7.6 PPG collapse, the largest among all MVPs. Oscar Robertson (-3.5), Bob McAdoo (-3.8), David Robinson (-3.0), Joel Embiid (-2.8), and Bill Walton (-2.5) also struggled to sustain scoring levels deep into the playoffs.

Even some scoring legends like James Harden (-1.4) and Bob Pettit (-0.9) dipped noticeably. Willis Reed (-1.3), Kobe Bryant (-0.6), and Charles Barkley (-0.9) also experienced slight declines, despite their reputations as fierce competitors.

The contrast between the single-season peaks and full career arcs is striking. While players like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar had multiple postseason surges in MVP years, his overall playoff average (24.3) still falls slightly short of his regular season mark (24.6). Others, like Jokić, Olajuwon, Jordan, Nowitzki, and Rose, proved capable of sustaining elevated performance across multiple playoff runs

NBA MVPs Season: Playoff Scoring vs. Regular Season

Career Playoff Scoring vs. Regular season for all NBA MVPs