Market value projection vs Actual league position: The biggest gainers and underachievers in Europe’s top 5 leagues

Written by Paul Kemp

Paul Kemp

Paul Kemp is an experienced sports writer covering Soccer, NBA and NHL. He also writes in depth reviews of sports betting sites based on his personal experience.

, | Updated: November 14, 2024

The shift in power at Manchester United, with Ruben Amorim taking over as manager, prompted Sportingpedia to investigate which clubs across Europe’s top five leagues have exceeded expectations and which have been underperforming. For our analysis, we compared each team’s market value, representing their financial power, to their actual league positions. This comparison revealed several interesting insights, with one of the most striking being that Manchester United currently ranks second among all 96 clubs in terms of underperformance. The club sits 13th in the Premier League standings, eight positions lower than their market valuation suggests (5th). The only team with a larger decline is Valencia, which has dropped 14 positions. Crystal Palace is the only other team to find itself seven or more positions below its projected standing. On the flip side, Fulham leads the overachievers, climbing 10 places above their projected market value rank. Empoli (up 9), Auxerre (up 7), Osasuna (up 7), and Nottingham Forest (up 7) round out the only five clubs to exceed their market value expectations by seven or more positions.

The analysis can also serve as a direct indicator of how clubs are aligning – or failing to align – their financial backing with on-field performance. Our findings reveal that the biggest underachievers, such as Valencia, Manchester United, Rennes, Roma, and Hoffenheim, have already changed their managers, some of which more than once. The trend highlights what to expect in the future and suggests which managerial positions may be under significant threat as clubs strive to meet expectations.

Key Takeaways:

• In Ligue 1, the top 6 fully corresponds with the top 6 in value
• Fulham are the most improved team in the Premier League, climbing 10 positions above their market value rank, while Manchester United are the biggest underperformers, sitting 8 spots below their expected standing
• In La Liga, Osasuna lead the gains with a 7-position improvement, whereas Valencia stand out as the league’s biggest underperformer, dropping 14 places
• The Bundesliga sees Union Berlin as the most improved, moving up 5 spots, while Stuttgart and Hoffenheim share the title of biggest underperformers, each falling 6 places
• In Ligue 1, Auxerre have exceeded expectations with a 7-position gain, while Rennes have struggled the most, sitting 6 places below their market value rank
• Serie A’s most improved team is Empoli, climbing 9 positions, while Roma and Genoa are the biggest underperformers, both falling 6 spots

Premier League

Fulham have been the standout gainers in the Premier League, improving 10 places from their market value rank of 17th to 7th in the actual standings for the 2024/25 season. Nottingham Forest have also exceeded expectations, climbing 7 places, while Leicester have improved by 4 places. On the other hand, Manchester United are the league’s biggest underachievers, sitting in 13th place despite being ranked 5th in market value. Crystal Palace and Wolverhampton also fall short of expectations, down 7 and 5 places respectively. Chelsea (3rd) and Everton (16th) have performed exactly as their market values predict.

La Liga

In La Liga, Osasuna lead the list of gainers, performing 7 positions above their market value rank. Rayo Vallecano and Leganes have also surpassed expectations, climbing 6 and 5 spots respectively. Valencia is the biggest underachiever across Europe’s top five leagues, currently sitting in 20th place despite being the sixth-most valuable team in the league. Real Sociedad and Sevilla have also underperformed, by 4 and 3 places respectively. Atletico Madrid (3rd) and Getafe (17th) have maintained their positions as predicted by their market values.

Bundesliga

Union Berlin have exceeded expectations in the Bundesliga, performing 5 positions better than their market value rank. Mainz and Werder Bremen are also gainers, each moving up 4 positions. The biggest underachievers are Stuttgart and Hoffenheim, both down by 6 positions, followed by Wolfsburg, who have fallen by 5. Bayern Munich (1st) and Augsburg (13th) are performing exactly as their market value rank suggests.

Ligue 1

Auxerre has been the standout performer in Ligue 1, climbing 7 positions above their market value rank. Toulouse and Angers have also outperformed expectations, gaining 4 and 3 places respectively. Rennes is the league’s biggest underachiever, sitting 6 places below their market value rank, followed by Montpellier (down 5) and Strasbourg (down 3). Notably, the top six most valuable teams in Ligue 1 perfectly match the top six positions in the standings.

Serie A

Empoli lead Serie A’s gainers, performing 9 positions better than their market value rank. Fiorentina is up by 5 positions, while Lazio and Napoli have each climbed 4 places. Roma and Genoa are the league’s biggest underachievers, each down by 6 positions. Juventus and Milan have also underperformed, both sitting 4 places below their market value expectations. Parma (13th) and Venezia (20th) are the only teams performing exactly as predicted by their market value ranks.